As we move into a new year, let’s recap some of the 2011 trends in the Canadian housing market, focusing on three major markets: Toronto, Calgary and Vancouver.
Then let’s look ahead at what to expect in 2012, in terms of Canadian real estate.
The average price for a Toronto home increased by 8% year over year in 2011, to $465,412. Home sales increased 4% to 91,756. However, the number of new listings is down 4%.
Bidding wars were commonplace in Toronto in the first half of 2011, but these eased up when more properties came on the market in the third quarter.
Residential sales in Calgary increased 8% in 2011 over the previous year. However, as one analyst pointed out, the “sales were still 17% below the average.”
The average sales price of a single family home in Calgary also increased to $453,629 in 2011, over $441,364 in 2010.
In Vancouver, housing sales for 2011 started strong but demand dropped off in the summer. According to a report from the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver, “[Prices] dropped about 1.5 per cent from June to the end of the year. But overall, the benchmark price for all residential properties increased 7.6 per cent for the year.”
As for this year, senior economist Jacques Marcil forecasts a “significant correction” for the province of British Columbia, and ads that “the Vancouver market likely peaked last year.”
He predicts home resales will drop by 3.7%, and prices will follow suit.
Marcil also says that the “growing pipeline” of inventory will “cool down” condo sales in Toronto.
Calgary is “expected to outperform most others” over 2012, according to TD Economics. However, they forecast an increase in residential sales there to go up by only 0.1%, with average prices increasing by just 0.5%
Is the bubble we’ve written about before about to burst?
“If you listen closely you can hear the sound of air seeping out of Canada’s housing balloon,” clamed another analyst, noting that “unlike a bubble, a balloon can deflate slowly.
(Note, however, that a market slow down doesn’t necessarily translate into lower property prices.)
“Markets are balanced in over half the country, but sellers still rule in Toronto, Saskatchewan and Manitoba,” he told reporters, and forecast modest gains in sales, “steady prices, a dip in housing starts and a moderation in mortgage growth from its pace of almost 8 per cent.”
Also, relatively lower mortgage rates mean that home ownership is still attainable; hence, there will still be people buying properties.
It is almost impossible to “time the market” in terms of any investment, including real estate. Buying a home entails a number of factors that are hard to measure and predict, such as your employment situation, not to mention your personal tastes and preferences. Be sure to consult with a real estate professional about the current housing market in your area when you are ready to buy. If you second guess to long, you may lose out on your dream home.
In 2012, we will definitely see a more balanced market and some areas may have more corrections than others.
